As we approach Friday's Kentucky-Villanova match, we'll take a look at the things we know, and the things we don't know, as it pertains to what is shaping up as a huge game in the Big Blue universe. First up: What we know.
What We Know
The Bold and the Beatuiful
When he's on, Randolph Morris is one of the most talented big men in the entire field. With two strong performances (Bama, Miss. St.) in the SEC Tournament, Kentucky's enigmatic center showed why there is any NBA talk surrounding him despite his still far too frequent 4-point, 6-rebound outings.
Morris' little fadeaway jumper is deadly, and when he's physical, like he was against MSU on Friday, he's a totally different player, a borderline force in the paint. He has good hands, is an improving (if still mediocre) passer, and could end up being a 75-80% free throw shooter with focus (there's that word again).
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But while Nova's Curtis Sumpter is a good story, and a good forward, he's not a match for the "good" Morris.
Right Guard
Villanova has the best backcourt player in the game and one of the best in the region in freshman Scottie Reynolds. A dynamic point/scoring guard in the Deron Williams (Illinois, '05) mold, Reynolds is a tough matchup for any guards defensively, as he can drive with either hand and shoot from NBA range.
Beating Villanova will be a group effort, but especially on defense, where Reynolds cannot be left to score at will. Because he will.
Throwing it All Away
If the Cats cannot improve their turnover numbers, it wouldn't matter if they were playing St. Catherine's School for the Deaf and Armless, they won't win.
In this year of utter inconsistency, only one thing has been consistent: turnovers kill these dudes. Limiting giveaways is one of the things that Kentucky can do to maximize its chances of winning.
Tubby's Time
Tubby Smith has lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament exactly one time: 1997, his final season at Georgia. In that game, Smith and his Bulldogs were caught by the upset bug at the hands of College of Charleston.
Before and since, Smith has generally been considered a "March coach." Throwing away all the commentary about what his Kentucky teams "should or "should not" be accomplishing, his winning percentage in the NCAAs is .700 (7th best among active coaches), far above the norm.
With his butt firmly on the hot seat, it's safe to say we know that Tubby Smith will be pumped to win this game. Or, if he's not, that he's accepted his fate and has no fight left in him. Hard to imagine that scenario, given his statements of late.